Epidemic model

Tables: Parameter estimates

\(R0\), \(r(t)\), \(\mu(t)\)

mean (95% CI)
R0 3.455 (3.336,3.656)
R(t) 2020-03-27 0.816 (0.733,0.904)
R(t) 2020-05-15 1.17 (1.032,1.268)
r(t) 2020-04-15 0.426 (0.173,0.685)
r(t) 2020-08-15 0.522 (0.184,0.735)

\(\alpha(t)\), \(\kappa(t)\), \(\delta(t)\)

mean (95% CI) Alpha_t mean (95% CI) Kappa_t mean (95% CI) Delta_t
2020-05-01 0.154 (0.127,0.175) 0.57 (0.55,0.591) 0.544 (0.525,0.565)
2020-06-01 0.069 (0.043,0.087) 0.59 (0.572,0.603) 0.546 (0.52,0.569)

CFR and IFR

CFR mean (95% CI) IFR mean (95% CI)
2020-03-01 0.0082 (0.0017,0.0163) 0.0035 (0.0004,0.0079)
2020-03-15 0.0082 (0.0051,0.0113) 0.0036 (0.001,0.0067)
2020-04-01 0.0149 (0.0123,0.0176) 0.0064 (0.0022,0.011)
2020-04-15 0.0257 (0.0221,0.0292) 0.011 (0.0039,0.0187)
2020-05-01 0.0334 (0.0291,0.0376) 0.0143 (0.0051,0.0241)
2020-05-15 0.0362 (0.0313,0.041) 0.0155 (0.0055,0.0264)
2020-06-01 0.0349 (0.0297,0.04) 0.0149 (0.0054,0.0263)
2020-06-15 0.0321 (0.0264,0.038) 0.0137 (0.005,0.025)
2020-07-01 0.0289 (0.0225,0.0359) 0.0124 (0.0046,0.0236)
2020-07-15 0.0268 (0.0197,0.0346) 0.0115 (0.0041,0.0227)
2020-08-01 0.0255 (0.0178,0.0338) 0.0109 (0.0039,0.0221)
2020-08-15 0.0253 (0.0172,0.0336) 0.0108 (0.0039,0.0219)
2020-09-01 0.0255 (0.0172,0.0336) 0.0109 (0.004,0.0219)
2020-09-15 0.0257 (0.0173,0.0337) 0.011 (0.004,0.0219)
2020-10-01 0.0259 (0.0174,0.0338) 0.0111 (0.0041,0.0219)
2020-10-15 0.0259 (0.0174,0.0337) 0.0111 (0.0041,0.0219)
2020-11-01 0.0256 (0.0169,0.0334) 0.0109 (0.004,0.0218)
2020-11-15 0.0252 (0.0165,0.0332) 0.0108 (0.0039,0.0215)

Figure: Model fits

Summarizes the epidemic model fit with COVID-19 data for LAC from March 1 through 2020-10-17 for all disease states across multiple views: New cases, representing new daily incidence; the current number in a compartment at a specific date, relevant for understanding current prevalence rates and comparing with healthcare capacity limitations; and cumulative counts until a specific date. Observed data for available compartments with cases attributable to nursing home residents removed, are plotted as black dots. The figure demonstrates that good model fits are achieved in all compartments across time.

  • New = new daily incidence
  • Current = current census in compartment
  • Cumulative = running total over time
  • Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed
  • The dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits

Figures: Time-Varying Parameters

Reproductive Number \(R(t)\)

Fraction of Observed Infections \(r(t)\)

\(\alpha(t)\), \(\kappa(t)\), \(\delta(t)\)

Time-varying CFR(t)

Time-varying IFR(t)

Figures: Compartmental Variables

Current observed infections

Current estimated total infections

Current in hospital

New deaths

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Risk model

Severe illness probabilities by profile

CFR(t) and IFR(t) by profile

Stage of disease by risk factor group

Estimated frequency of groups in the overall LAC population, and the population of individuals in each stage of disease from infected, hospitalized, admitted to ICU, to deceased on each date May.15, Aug.1, Oct.15 (2020): (A) Risk Groups, (B) age group, (C) obesity class groups, (D) any comorbidity group, and (E) smoking status group.

Risk group

Age

Cormorbidity

BMI

Smoking status

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SCENARIOS

Scenarios: Get Alpha, Kappa, Delta with populations protected

Scenarios: Run scenarios with populations protected and get plots