| mean (95% CI) | |
|---|---|
| R0 | 3.455 (3.336,3.656) |
| R(t) 2020-03-27 | 0.816 (0.733,0.904) |
| R(t) 2020-05-15 | 1.17 (1.032,1.268) |
| r(t) 2020-04-15 | 0.426 (0.173,0.685) |
| r(t) 2020-08-15 | 0.522 (0.184,0.735) |
| mean (95% CI) Alpha_t | mean (95% CI) Kappa_t | mean (95% CI) Delta_t | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-05-01 | 0.154 (0.127,0.175) | 0.57 (0.55,0.591) | 0.544 (0.525,0.565) |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.069 (0.043,0.087) | 0.59 (0.572,0.603) | 0.546 (0.52,0.569) |
| CFR mean (95% CI) | IFR mean (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-01 | 0.0082 (0.0017,0.0163) | 0.0035 (0.0004,0.0079) |
| 2020-03-15 | 0.0082 (0.0051,0.0113) | 0.0036 (0.001,0.0067) |
| 2020-04-01 | 0.0149 (0.0123,0.0176) | 0.0064 (0.0022,0.011) |
| 2020-04-15 | 0.0257 (0.0221,0.0292) | 0.011 (0.0039,0.0187) |
| 2020-05-01 | 0.0334 (0.0291,0.0376) | 0.0143 (0.0051,0.0241) |
| 2020-05-15 | 0.0362 (0.0313,0.041) | 0.0155 (0.0055,0.0264) |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.0349 (0.0297,0.04) | 0.0149 (0.0054,0.0263) |
| 2020-06-15 | 0.0321 (0.0264,0.038) | 0.0137 (0.005,0.025) |
| 2020-07-01 | 0.0289 (0.0225,0.0359) | 0.0124 (0.0046,0.0236) |
| 2020-07-15 | 0.0268 (0.0197,0.0346) | 0.0115 (0.0041,0.0227) |
| 2020-08-01 | 0.0255 (0.0178,0.0338) | 0.0109 (0.0039,0.0221) |
| 2020-08-15 | 0.0253 (0.0172,0.0336) | 0.0108 (0.0039,0.0219) |
| 2020-09-01 | 0.0255 (0.0172,0.0336) | 0.0109 (0.004,0.0219) |
| 2020-09-15 | 0.0257 (0.0173,0.0337) | 0.011 (0.004,0.0219) |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.0259 (0.0174,0.0338) | 0.0111 (0.0041,0.0219) |
| 2020-10-15 | 0.0259 (0.0174,0.0337) | 0.0111 (0.0041,0.0219) |
| 2020-11-01 | 0.0256 (0.0169,0.0334) | 0.0109 (0.004,0.0218) |
| 2020-11-15 | 0.0252 (0.0165,0.0332) | 0.0108 (0.0039,0.0215) |
Summarizes the epidemic model fit with COVID-19 data for LAC from March 1 through 2020-10-17 for all disease states across multiple views: New cases, representing new daily incidence; the current number in a compartment at a specific date, relevant for understanding current prevalence rates and comparing with healthcare capacity limitations; and cumulative counts until a specific date. Observed data for available compartments with cases attributable to nursing home residents removed, are plotted as black dots. The figure demonstrates that good model fits are achieved in all compartments across time.
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Estimated frequency of groups in the overall LAC population, and the population of individuals in each stage of disease from infected, hospitalized, admitted to ICU, to deceased on each date May.15, Aug.1, Oct.15 (2020): (A) Risk Groups, (B) age group, (C) obesity class groups, (D) any comorbidity group, and (E) smoking status group.
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